Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs), often with mixed consequences for local communities, are transforming rural areas in low- and middle-income countries. Fueled by rising global demands for food, water, and energy, these transnational investments are displacing smallholder farming and natural ecosystems with large-scale commercial agriculture. While these changes significantly impact local food, water, and environmental systems, how these socio-environmental dimensions interact to shape household well-being remains inadequately understood.
In this Science Talk, Dr. Marc F. Müller will present a global analysis of a new database of over 400 georeferenced land deals linked to household dietary data from more than 84,000 children across 28 countries. Using a clustering algorithm, he classifies land deals into archetypes defined by their cross-sectoral trade-offs, revealing distinct pathways of impact. For example, deals intensifying production under physical water scarcity often lead to declines in dietary diversity due to reduced availability of nutrient-dense foods. Conversely, investments that alleviate economic water scarcity or enhance opportunities in intensive agricultural regions show potential to improve food security. The findings highlight the importance of policies that are tailored to the specific trade-offs associated with different archetypes of land deals. By recognizing and addressing these diverse impacts, policymakers can better regulate transnational land investments to minimize harm and promote sustainable and equitable outcomes for rural populations.
Speaker
Associate Research Professor, Water Security and Conflicts
