Abstract
Land subsidence is a widespread coastal hazard that exacerbates flooding and infrastructure degradation. Here, we present the first national-scale characterization of land subsidence hazard and exposure of population groups and infrastructure systems across 20 United States coastal states, explicitly accounting for spatial dependence. Using more than 190 million vertical land motion measurements derived from radar satellite imagery and ground observations, we develop a national-scale map that classifies subsidence into low-, moderate-, and high-hazard levels. Nationally, 71.5% of coastal areas subside faster than 0.1 centimeters per year, with the Gulf Coast experiencing the highest rates. At the national level, subsidence is best characterized by the heavy-tailed Generalized Extreme Value distribution, while uplift is characterized by the Generalized Pareto distribution. We further identify disproportionate exposure among disadvantaged communities and critical infrastructure systems. These findings offer a foundation for resilient coastal planning and equitable adaptation of infrastructure systems.
