From Causation to Threshold: Developing a Refugee Law-Based Policy Support System for Climate Displacement, Tested Through African Case Studies

This project develops a threshold-based Policy Support System (PSS) designed to structure the assessment of climate-related protection claims. Drawing on the forward-looking risk logic embedded in the refugee law and non-refoulement jurisprudence, the model integrates legal risk assessment principles, human rights thresholds, and environmental risk indicators to identify when protection obligations should be activated. Rather than proposing a new treaty regime, the thesis seeks to operationalise existing protection frameworks by providing a structured method for translating environmental degradation into legally cognisable risk. While the system will be piloted within an African regional context, its analytical structure is intended to be adaptable across different legal settings.