PhD Defence: The Cost of Division. Essays on Political Economy, Social Cohesion, and Public Policies

This dissertation examines the role of social cohesion, particularly trust and belonging, in shaping citizens' attitudes toward public policy and institutional change, positioning itself at the intersection of development economics and political behaviour. Drawing on original and secondary data from Latin America and Eastern Europe, the essays build on a broad analytical framework introduced in the introductory chapter to explore how cohesion operates across three distinct domains of political economy. The first empirical chapter analyses nine countries in Latin America and finds that political mistrust undermines legitimacy for governmental action during crises, while social mistrust is particularly detrimental to cooperation when uncertainty is high. The second chapter focuses on Brazil and shows that cultural grievance, rather than economic deprivation, is the primary driver of populist vote choice in the 2018 elections, a landmark moment in the region's shift toward right-wing populism. The third chapter demonstrates that, contrary to theoretical predictions, people do not become more supportive of redistribution when they directly benefit from social policies; instead, economic exclusion and perceived deservingness shape how redistributive policy expansion affects tax preferences and political support for the government. Overall, the dissertation shows that trust and belonging influence not only macro-political ruptures but also citizens' subtler preferences regarding fairness and policy design, offering new theoretical and empirical contributions to the political economy of social cohesion.