After going overtime for more than a day, the conference delivered the “Baku Climate Unity Pack”. Being dubbed the Climate finance COP, COP29 was set to deliver a new collective quantified goal on climate finance. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called the outcome “a base to build on”, while also admitting that he had hoped for a more ambitious outcome on finance and climate mitigation. We are unpacking the COP29 results and exploring what comes next.
Incremental multilateral steps. The climate finance goal and more
The headline decision was the “new collective quantified goal” on climate finance, seeing developed nations agreeing to increase financial support for developing countries by committing to mobilize USD 300 billion annually by 2035. While this target is a step forward from the previous USD 100 billion goal, many argue it falls short of what is needed to address the growing costs of climate adaptation and mitigation in vulnerable regions. A last-minute effort especially by Small Island States and Least Developed countries resulted in anchoring a general call to reach USD 1.3 trillion finance in total, and a political process to increase climate finance until COP30. The decision also firms up signals towards reforming the international financial architecture towards more climate action.
On adaptation, incremental steps were made, too. Parties agreed on further guidance (including a first-time reference to finance) for indicator development to monitor the Global Goal on Adaptation; work that is to conclude at the next COP in Belém, Brazil. They also secured the “Baku Adaptation Road Map”, as a placeholder for advancing adaptation, and affirmed that the Global Goal on Adaptation remains an agenda item at the climate negotiations. Yet the gap between the global agreements reached and the adaptation needs keeps widening. All eyes are now on the Bonn Climate Change Conference in June 2025 to courageously advance adaptation, including the transformational adaptation needed to face the climate emergency.
After years of negotiations, COP29 finalized the rules for carbon trading mechanisms under Article 6, allowing countries to trade emissions reductions internationally and setting the rules for an international crediting mechanism. The framework is designed to accelerate global decarbonization efforts while directing investments toward climate-friendly projects in developing nations. Agreeing on the rules closes the last open chapter of the Paris Rulebook, meaning the necessary fine-print to operationalize all aspects of the Paris Agreement.
Beyond the high-level decisions: Subnational actions, AI and human mobility
At COP29, subnational governments showcased their leadership in climate initiatives, often surpassing national efforts. COP29 also delivered the Baku Continuity Coalition for Urban Climate Action and the Declaration on Multisectoral Actions Pathways (MAP) for Resilient and Healthy Cities, advancing urban issues in upcoming global climate negotiations, while safeguarding current progress. Brazil highlighted its commitment to “climate federalism” in its own climate action plan, hence the topic will likely be on the COP30 agenda.
Artificial intelligence has the potential to leapfrog climate action. COP28 for the first time anchored the topic as part of a COP decision, looking at opportunities and risks especially for Least Developed Countries and Small Island States. COP29 delivered a grand-prize winner announcement highlighting innovative ideas like AI predictive disaster management in Small Island States. The topic of AI and climate change will likely be a presidency priority for COP30.
Climate mobility received a lot of attention at COP29. The climate crisis affects human mobility in four ways: through displacement, migration, displacement, planned relocation and involuntary immobility (trapped populations). Migration and displacement received most attention, with COP decisions including text on protection of migrants and refugees. Planned relocation and situations where people are not able to move out of areas with high climate risk received less attention, but are increasingly recognized as emerging topics. COP29 delivered the message that countries and international organizations should take responsibility to support people-centred and community-led adaptation actions, including planned relocation as a last resort.
Building the climate road to Belém
Several items expected at COP29 have been postponed to 2025, to be addressed at the Bonn Climate Change Conference and COP30 in Belém. These include the Review of the Warsaw International Mechanism and National Adaptation Plans. Additionally, the breakthrough text from the 2023 Global Stocktake, which includes the call to “transition away from fossil fuels”, faced new resistance, pushing respective decisions to next year.
In times of geopolitical divergence, COP29 led to incremental advances. While these may seem like a step back given the escalating climate impacts, it is important to note that the overall outlook on climate action is more positive than ever. There is a strong economic rationale for the green energy revolution, the likely near-term peaking of global emissions and a continued trend in reducing human losses due to climate disasters.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted the Baku Climate Unity Pact as a foundation to build upon, provided it is honoured through action. Building the climate road from Baku to Belém involves transforming finance commitments into concrete pledges and policy initiatives to enhance climate finance across the international financial architecture. Most importantly, countries must focus on their homework: Submitting enhanced climate action plans — NDCs 3.0 (Nationally Determined Contributions) — in 2025, moving from incremental change to transformation.
