In many of the world’s drylands, the ground is shifting. Not in the literal sense, but in how people live, move and adapt to an increasingly unpredictable climate. Drylands are regions where water is scarce, rainfall unreliable and where livelihoods are often insecure. Droughts are characteristic of drylands, and people living in rural drylands often face deeper poverty. The land itself is more easily affected by both climate change and human land use. A new global study has found that in these fragile environments, the climate can have a strong influence on if people migrate, become displaced or trapped where they are, a phenomenon also referred to as involuntary immobility.
Drawing from 81 peer-reviewed studies published between 1976 and 2023, UNU-EHS researchers examined how different types of climatic stress, from slow-onset events like droughts to sudden disasters such as floods, affect human mobility across dryland regions in 107 countries. Their findings are clear: in the vast majority of cases (91 per cent), climate stress influences whether people stay, leave or become involuntary immobile. The study offers one of the most comprehensive reviews to date on the links between climate and human mobility in drylands, a category that covers more than 40 per cent of the Earth’s land area and is home to over 2 billion people.
Movement, but not always by choice
People in drylands have a long history of adapting to their environment. However, recent and increasing climate extremes are pushing this resilience to the limit. In about three quarters of the reviewed studies, climate stress was found to increase movement, often in the form of migration or displacement. In other cases, especially where economic or political barriers exist, people remain in deteriorating conditions. This shows that climate change does not just make people move, but that it can also prevent them from moving when they want or need to, which adds urgency to the call for policies that consider both those on the move and those left behind.
Droughts, disasters and disrupted lives
Not all climate events have the same level of impact. Hazards which happen fast and are often extreme, like floods or cyclones, were especially associated with forced displacement. In contrast, the more gradual changes, such as droughts, desertification or rising temperatures, tended to drive longer-term migration or reshape traditional mobility patterns. Drought stood out as the most commonly studied stressor in the study. Since many people living in drylands rely on rain-fed agriculture and livestock for their livelihoods, droughts can directly threaten food and water security, often leaving people with little choice but to move.
Currently, certain mobility forms are underexplored in research. Pastoralism, for example, a traditional way of life in many drylands, was addressed in only a small share of studies. Additionally, so was the concept of staying in place, voluntarily or otherwise. What this reveals is not just the extent to which climate shapes mobility, but also how much remains unknown. The focus often lies on migration, overlooking people being forced from their homes, nomadic herders adjusting their movements, people that are choosing to stay or people that are unable to move from risky places. As dryland regions continue to experience intensifying climate impacts, these forms of human mobility should be taken into account.
Rethinking climate migration narratives
While climate stress does influence how people move in drylands, the changes are often modest and mostly happen within countries. This challenges the idea that climate change will cause huge numbers of people migrating from the Global South to the Global North. Instead, the reality is quieter but no less urgent. Some people adapt and stay where they are, some are migrating locally and others cannot move at all, even when conditions worsen. Understanding these more complex patterns can help to create better support and policies that actually address what people are experiencing in real life.
