As Latin America prepares for the potential impacts of El Niño, Ecuador faces heightened risks from intense rainfall, flooding, water scarcity and disruptions to essential services. In a Deutsche Welle (DW) article published in June 2026, UNU-EHS Senior Researcher, Andrea Ramírez Agudelo, explained how scientific data can support anticipatory action and more inclusive urban climate planning in the country.
Ramírez Agudelo noted that Ecuador could take proactive measures to promote socially inclusive urban climate action. El Niño may bring heavier and more prolonged rainfall over short periods, increasing flood risks, particularly in coastal cities where flooding can disrupt mobility, damage homes and affect water, sanitation, health, education and other essential services.
The article also highlights the importance of planning and coordination. According to Ramírez Agudelo, climate-resilient urban development is essential to reduce the worst impacts of El Niño. Priority measures include strengthening early warning systems through community networks, protecting essential infrastructure and using spaces such as civic centers, schools and other educational facilities as climate resilience hubs.
Looking ahead, Ramírez Agudelo’s contribution underscores the role of scientific information in supporting preparedness before extreme conditions materialize. By using forecasts to strengthen early warning systems, protect essential services and support inclusive planning, Ecuador can move from reactive crisis response toward anticipatory and community-centered climate resilience.
Read the full article in Spanish on the Deutsche Welle website. A translation into English can be found below.
Is Ecuador prepared for El Niño?
By Judit Alonso
Latin America will be one of the regions of the world most affected by this phenomenon. What actions can be taken based on the scientific data currently available?
An analysis of Ecuador
With their eyes on the sky, cocoa farmers in Ecuador are waiting for the rainy season to end and for the high temperatures that marked the month of May to ease. This is one of the main sectors threatened by the impacts that El Niño may have on agriculture in the region.
“Dry conditions directly threaten the survival of cocoa, as bean size is negatively affected,” Alejandro Gil, Director of Purchasing and Agricultural Development in the Operations Department of Compañía Nacional de Chocolates in Medellín, Colombia, told DW. “By contrast, above-normal rainfall can cause flooding, increase pressure from fungal diseases and create post-harvest complications,” he added.
However, “each El Niño event has its own signature; no two are alike. Each occurs with very specific characteristics,” Bolívar Erazo, former director of Ecuador’s National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI), told DW.
Taking the scientific data into account, “Ecuador could act in advance to promote socially inclusive urban climate action, as El Niño could bring heavier and more prolonged rainfall over very short periods, increasing the risk of flooding,” Andrea Ramírez Agudelo, Senior Researcher at the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), told DW.
A matter of planning
“Ecuador is developing preventive measures in response to the El Niño phenomenon: national and regional committees have been established through various State institutions and local governments,” Javier Félix, Executive Director of Fundación Pachamama, told DW.
However, Ramírez notes that climate-resilient urban development is essential to anticipate the worst effects of El Niño, since in coastal cities, “flooding can disrupt mobility, damage homes and cause failures in water, sanitation, health, education and other essential services.” She calls for prioritizing actions such as strengthening early warning systems through community networks, protecting essential infrastructure and using spaces such as civic centers, schools and other educational facilities as climate resilience hubs, among other measures, “to improve inter-institutional coordination and act from, with and for communities.”
For Mery Montesdeoca, Project Manager at Fundación Tierra Viva, “preparedness for El Niño requires combining technical knowledge with local knowledge, participatory planning and sustained investment in prevention and climate adaptation, especially among rural and Indigenous populations, who are often the most vulnerable to these impacts.”
Lesson Learnt
Experiences from previous episodes provide insight into the direction that should be taken in managing this phenomenon. “The 2023-2024 El Niño event left important lessons learned for managing both the excess water that can occur on Ecuador’s coast during El Niño, as well as the rainfall deficits that can occur in the Sierra and Amazon regions, which even led the country into a national energy crisis,” Erazo explained, recalling that the energy matrix depends mainly on hydropower generation.
INAMHI has played a key role in making meteorological data and specialized analysis more accessible. The country also has a national risk management system, implemented through the National Secretariat for Risk Management and coordinated with authorities across the country through the Decentralized National Risk Management System. “This institutional framework enables prevention, mitigation and response at the national level to natural or human-induced events,” Erazo said, while also acknowledging the need for greater investment to strengthen the national monitoring system and implement new early warning systems that can be effectively used by citizens and communities.
In this regard, Montesdeoca calls for greater investment in adaptation, stronger local capacities and effective coordination among the State, local governments and civil society organizations.
Complementing the institutional role
Initiatives developed at the territorial level are being added to State-led actions. “At the community level, our work is aimed at strengthening the resilience of rural populations by protecting and restoring water sources, implementing water harvesting and storage systems, promoting agroecological practices that diversify production and reduce risks, and supporting training and organizational strengthening processes so that families can better anticipate and respond to extreme climate events,” explained the Project Manager at Fundación Tierra Viva.
“Given the possible scale of this El Niño, the measures currently being taken are likely to be insufficient, and Ecuador’s coast in particular is likely to be heavily affected,” said the Executive Director of Fundación Pachamama. The organization is conducting a diagnosis in Achuar Indigenous territory to develop a strategy on access to safe water, food and community health.
