The July 2026 Wildfires in Canada and Their Transboundary Smoke Problem

Key Findings

• Late but Explosive Start

Canada has experienced several extreme wildfire activity years in the last decade. Canada’s 2026 fire season had a slow start, trailing behind the 10-year (2016-2025) average until the late June North American Heat Dome, when the burned area started to sharply increase. As of July 23, the cumulative burned area

• Significant Above-normal Regional Wildfire Activity

As of this writing, the Northwest Territories, Quebec, and Ontario have shown marked above-average wildfire activity, with Ontario experiencing a 3.5-fold larger burned area than the 10-year average. Ontario wildfires, in particular, caused widespread evacuations, affecting multiple First Nation communities. Some had to flee wildfire blazes on boats.

• Climate Change as a Key Driver and Amplifier

These wildfires are a stark manifestation of a warming climate. Below-normal June-July precipitation in Ontario was worsened by a >2°C above-average temperature, drying the vegetation to support wildfire ignition and growth. A stationary high-pressure system, also known as a heat dome, at the end of June across much of North America contributed to curing the fuels for large wildfire activity.

• Urgent Need for Enhanced Resilience and Mitigation

The current wildfire crisis emphasizes the critical need for improved societal resilience, better evacuation systems, robust support for displaced populations, and proactive wildfire prevention. Additionally, strengthening resilience to wildfire smoke is paramount, as studies suggest smoke can cause a cumulative 1.9 million excess deaths between 2026 and 2055 across the United States alone².

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