Abstract
Snowmelt, a vital source of freshwater for a large portion of North America’s population, is increasingly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Air temperature and precipitation are significant climatic controllers regulating snowmelt dynamics. In this study, we quantified the response of winter snowmelt magnitude to changing temperature and precipitation across North America (Canada and the United States) using gridded, observation-driven data and future projections. Our analysis of far-future conditions (2091-2100) reveals a significant increase (>60%) in winter (November-March) snowmelt in northern latitudes, while southern latitudes are projected to experience a decline (<38%). Projected snowmelt changes are strongly associated with changes in winter temperature, while projected declines are consistent with regions experiencing reduced snowfall under warming climates. Our findings suggest that the probability of an increase in winter snowmelt is high under the warmer and wetter climatic conditions prevailing in northern regions. In contrast, winter snowmelt across southern latitudes is likely to decrease.
