Predictive Technologies in Conflict Prevention: Practical and Policy Considerations for the Multilateral System

As conflict prevention has become increasingly central to the UN’s approach to insecurity and instability, data capture technologies have emerged as a central tool to identify and analyse recurrent conflict patterns and forecast potential crises. However, concerns over the use of these technologies have emerged, including inconsistencies in the quality of data and the risks of serious security ramifications, the adaptation of these technologies for surveillance purposes in violation of human rights, and "automation bias" or over-reliance on predictive technologies and under-reliance on human critical judgment.

This discussion paper engages various aspects of predictive technologies in conflict prevention and begins to outline an approach to their adoption that mitigates some of the challenges related to their uptake and application.

The first section reviews steps UN bodies have taken to use predictive technologies for conflict prevention. Next, it considers Member States’ role in advancing these technologies in the multilateral system, a field known as ‘peacetech.’ The last section looks at ethical aspects, including a review of the possible unintended consequences of deploying such technologies. Taken together, these sections explore what Member States could do to best position the multilateral system for the effective and ethical uptake of predictive technologies for conflict prevention and management.

The central recommendation is to adopt the precautionary principle when considering deployment of predictive systems. Member States should work alongside the policy research community and peace operators in the field to spearhead a common process for this precautionary approach.

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