In this hybrid research seminar on Thursday October 8, 2026, at 1:00 pm, we will have Giuseppe Maggio — will present his research titled "My Shock Hit Differently: Political Favoritism and Fund Allocation after Hydrogeological Shocks".
Abstract:
This paper studies how political alignment shapes the allocation of public funds following hydrogeological shocks in Italy. Combining municipal-level data on intergovernmental transfers, political affiliation, electoral outcomes, and disaster exposure, we examine whether politically connected municipalities receive preferential treatment. Panel estimates show that political alignment is associated with higher transfers in normal times and that this premium increases with the duration of the political connection. We complement this approach with a regression discontinuity design exploiting close electoral outcomes and municipalities’ electoral-vote distance from the threshold determining political alignment. Hydrogeological shocks generate additional needs-based transfers, but politically connected municipalities receive a further premium after disasters. Political alignment also increases the likelihood of formal emergency-status recognition, pointing to a gatekeeping mechanism operating upstream of the funding decision. Overall, the results suggest that political favoritism is a structural feature of intergovernmental transfers and is amplified by disaster shocks.
The Zoom link to join the seminar online can be found here. This event is open to the public; all those interested in this topic are very welcome to attend. After the presentation there will be time for questions and discussion.
For any queries related to our UNU-MERIT Seminar Series, please contact Lizeth Melissa Molina Alvarez and Raghav Chakravarthy by sending an email to seminars@merit.unu.edu.