Accurately modeling hydrometeorological processes is crucial for environmental risk assessment, requiring a deep understanding of nature's inherent randomness. While physical models provide a robust foundation, stochastic methods offer a compelling and computationally efficient alternative for capturing this variability. However, many existing models focus on specific statistical properties, often overlooking key attributes essential for precise probabilistic simulations. In this talk, Dr. Simon Papalexiou will focus on CoSMoS (Complete Stochastic Modeling System), a versatile framework that progresses from simple models to complex multisite and space-time scenarios. CoSMoS effectively replicates the probabilities and correlations of phenomena across time and space, producing detailed time series for various variables and generating fine-scale space-time simulations of storms. He will also discuss modelling challenges and future directions, highlighting how such methods can be invaluable tools for environmental scientists and engineers aiming to understand and predict the probabilistic behaviours of extreme events.
Speaker
Dr. Simon Michael Papalexiou
Associate Prof of Civil Engineering, UNU Hub at the University of Calgary and
Storms Team Lead, UNU Sustainability Nexus AID Programme
