In this hybrid research seminar on Thursday 24th April 2025 at 12:00-13:00 CET, Timothy Köhler—a Junior Research Fellow at the Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) based in the School of Economics at the University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa. — will present his research titled "The labour market effects of cash transfers to the unemployed: Evidence from South Africa".
Abstract:
This paper considers the labour market effects of an unconditional cash transfer targeted at the unemployed in a context of extreme unemployment. Using staggered, heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences designs applied to panel labour force survey data, we provide the first estimates of the causal effects of receipt of a new transfer introduced in South Africa in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, the first labour market-linked transfer in the country’s history which remains in place today. As an extension, we leverage variation induced by a change in eligibility criteria which resulted in a reduction in coverage to estimate the effects of grant loss (conditional on prior receipt). Focusing on three outcomes – job search, trying to start a business, and employment – we estimate direct effects on recipients and indirect effects on co-resident household members. We estimate both average and dynamic effects during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods, and additionally explore effect heterogeneity by employment type and sectoral formality. The results aim to inform policy discussions surrounding the appropriate form of social support for the working-age unemployed in high-unemployment lower-income contexts.
The zoom link to join the seminar online can be found here. This event is open to the public. All who are interested to this topic are very welcome to join the seminar. After the presentation there will be time for questions and discussion.
For any queries related to our UNU-MERIT Seminar Series, please contact Sneha Marydas and Cecilia Seri by sending an email to seminars@merit.unu.edu.
