In this hybrid research seminar on Tuesday June 30, 2026 at 12:00 pm by Professor Roney Fraga Souza — will present her research titled ": Detecting Technological Trajectories: Emergence, Convergence, Divergence, and Dormancy in Innovation Dynamics ".
Abstract:
Technological trajectories are central to neo-Schumpeterian economics, yet their empirical measurement remains methodologically open. Main Path Analysis traces citation-based routes, and econometric approaches model innovation dynamics through structural and reduced-form estimation, but capturing trajectories as endogenously evolving clusters requires a different analytical lens. This study advances beyond the reach of both traditions by treating trajectories as evolving clusters rather than as static paths or estimated effects. It uses an unsupervised computational method that applies dynamic programming to temporal cumulative clustering on citation networks of scientific articles and patents. It detects four dynamic dimensions of trajectories: emergence, convergence, divergence, and dormancy. The framework integrates citation networks, natural language processing, and structural topic modeling. Applied to 60,000 biogas publications, the method maps transitions from agricultural-empirical trajectories in the 1990s to systemic-circular trajectories in the 2020s. The open-source R package birddog implements all algorithms, enabling early detection of trajectory dynamics and supporting transformative innovation policy. For further information, visit the Project page.
The Teams link to join the seminar online can be found here. This event is open to the public; all those interested in this topic are very welcome to attend. After the presentation there will be time for questions and discussion.
For any queries related to our UNU-MERIT Seminar Series, please send an email to seminars@merit.unu.edu and phd-representatives@merit.unu.edu.
