From crisis to recovery: Tracing the welfare effects of social assistance programmes in Jordan

This project traces the welfare effects of Jordan's Takaful and Unified Cash Transfer (UCT) programmes, combining survey data (CMMHH, Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey) with National Aid Fund administrative records to assess both the short-term protective role of Takaful during COVID-19 and its longer-term influence on household outcomes under the UCT. Using quasi-experimental methods, it examines how cash transfers support household resilience, and also explores the integration between social assistance and social insurance in shaping economic recovery. The project is directly policy-relevant: Jordan's National Aid Fund is a regional benchmark for social assistance coverage and digital delivery, and the findings will offer NAF and international partners (World Bank, UNICEF, ILO) concrete evidence on strengthening shock-responsive targeting and continuity of support as households move between programmes and social protection schemes. Beyond Jordan, the research speaks to a wider evidence gap on how cash transfers function not just as static safety nets but as instruments for sustained recovery following compound shocks, offering lessons for other MENA and LMIC contexts on designing more adaptive, resilient social protection systems.