Evaluating the Long-term Effectiveness of Forest Landscape Restoration in Ghana through Integrated GIS and Satellite Time-series Analysis

Abstract

Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) is a pivotal strategy for addressing forest degradation and promoting sustainable land management; however, evidence of its long-term effectiveness in tropical Africa remains limited. This study evaluates ecological outcomes of FLR interventions, including the Modified Taungya System and Public-Private Plantation schemes, in Ghana's Afram Headwaters and Opro Forest Reserves between 1990 and 2024. The study integrates Landsat imagery with supervised Random Forest classification, NDVI trend testing, climate-controlled time-series analysis, and stakeholder interviews. The results reveal a degradation-recovery trajectory rather than a steady increase. Forest cover declined through 2013, driven primarily by cropland expansion and encroachment, before recovering by 2024 to near baseline in AHFR (+0.3%) and above baseline in OFR (+8.0%). Vegetation greenness peaked 2002, then subsequently declined modestly. After controlling for climate variability, the two reserves diverged: OFR showed a significant positive FLR-associated effect (+6.4%, p =0.001), while AHFR showed a negative residual ( 11.1%, p <0.001), suggesting that local governance and pressure regimes shaped outcomes differently. These findings indicate that FLR can deliver measurable forest recovery; however, in these reserves, and potentially in comparable forests, pressures including encroachment and illegal logging constrain the sustainability of restoration gains, particularly along reserve peripheries where recovery remains spatially uneven and vulnerable. Sustained restoration depends as much on effective governance, secure land tenure, transparent benefit-sharing, and community engagement as on tree planting itself. The study recommends sustained long-term monitoring through remote sensing, strengthened participation, and policy reforms to consolidate FLR gains in Ghana and similar tropical contexts.