Counting the Cost: From Extraction to Green Transition

This report examines how African countries can pursue a low-carbon transition while safeguarding economic stability, development priorities and social equity. It argues that an abrupt move away from hydrocarbons could weaken fiscal resilience, constrain debt repayment and disrupt livelihoods, and therefore calls for a gradual, inclusive and carefully managed transition. The report highlights the strategic role of renewable energy, critical minerals and green industrialization in supporting sustainable growth, job creation and value addition, while stressing the need for policies that promote local content, regional value chains and stronger intra-African cooperation. It emphasizes that climate action must remain aligned with investments in health, education, poverty reduction and other development objectives, requiring tailored country-specific pathways. To close the investment gap, the report identifies private capital, concessional finance and blended instruments as essential for expanding clean energy access and mobilizing large-scale investment by 2030. It also underlines the importance of equitable global partnerships, technology transfer and international support in responding to geopolitical volatility, energy market fluctuations and carbon border measures. Ultimately, the report proposes an African Green Deal as a coordinated continental strategy to advance low-carbon development, strengthen local ownership and ensure a just, inclusive transition.