This report argues that Africa must pursue managed and differentiated just transitions that reflect each country’s unique exposure to carbon market risks, development needs, vulnerabilities, and capacity to respond. Hydrocarbon-dependent African economies face growing risks from global decarbonization efforts, declining fossil fuel demand, climate-related financial pressures, and potential legal liabilities associated with stranded assets. At the same time, limited fiscal space, rising debt burdens, and insufficient climate finance threaten their ability to transition effectively.
Despite these challenges, Africa is well positioned to benefit from a low-carbon future. The continent possesses vast renewable energy resources, abundant critical minerals required for clean-energy technologies, and significant opportunities to leapfrog carbon-intensive development pathways. However, realizing these opportunities requires strategic planning, economic diversification, stronger regional cooperation, and greater investment in green infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, and human capital.
The report identifies five key determinants of a just transition in Africa: time, capacity, agency, scope, and inclusion. Transition pathways must be tailored to national contexts, supported by enhanced technical and financial capacity, strengthened regional collaboration, broad stakeholder participation, and long-term political commitment. A fragmented response would weaken Africa’s negotiating power; therefore, a coordinated continental approach is essential.
Key recommendations in this report include: developing a continental strategy to address stranded hydrocarbon assets, accelerating energy sufficiency through both renewable and transitional energy resources, enhancing economic diversification, strengthening Africa’s geopolitical influence in global energy and climate discussions, and significantly increasing climate finance.
The report concludes that Africa must move beyond “business as usual” approaches, build resilience, and pursue a collective low-carbon development pathway that balances climate action with socioeconomic development priorities.
