Adam Day and Dirk Druet wrote an op-ed in The Hill on how COVID-19 could lead to new wars in authoritarian regimes, based on their recent report, When Dictators Fall. Below is an excerpt.
The ability of authoritarian governments to control their populations and prevent the spread of the disease may appear like an upside for dictatorial regimes. Many countries with strong authoritarian governments are more susceptible to economic shocks, much more likely to experience a collapse in regime when a strong downturn occurs and more at risk of descending into violent conflict than are more conventional democracies. This research suggests that governments (and financial markets) should be worried about a rise in violence as the pandemic takes hold in these economies, given that those very governments have often failed to deal effectively with systemic inequalities.